I am having the same issue,
The issue still persisted after:
Cleaning Build / Solution
Restarting VS
Restarting PC
Even the spamming box suggestion above haha
For my case in the ClickOnceProfile.pubxml it lists:
<PublishDir>bin\Debug\net8.0-windows\app.publish\</PublishDir>
When I go into the app.publish folder I see that none of the files were effected by running the new build.
I believe this may be linked to messing with the publish settings for me: specifying minimum versions stopped it from updating.
I renamed the folder app.publish to something else to change it back in case it got worse, though you can probably just delete this folder if you see your dll/exe modified date is not consistent with your last build/publish attempt.
This regenerated the app.publish folder and published as normal!